The California Democratic Party just told its own candidates to get out of the race.
Eight of them filed anyway.
Now two Republicans are leading the polls to become California's next governor — and the Democrats did it to themselves.
California Governor Poll: Two Republicans Lead as Democrats Splinter
A new Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll of 5,019 California likely voters has Republican Steve Hilton at 17 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16 percent.
The Democrats? Scattered.
Eric Swalwell sits at 13 percent. Katie Porter at 13 percent. Billionaire Tom Steyer at 10 percent. Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra barely cracks 5 percent.
Eight Democrats. Not one of them leading.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks sent an open letter demanding candidates "without a viable path" exit before the filing deadline.
They ignored him.
Even Gavin Newsom acknowledged the meltdown — telling reporters he "understood" why Hicks sent the letter while his party's field collapsed around him.
How California's Jungle Primary Could Shut Democrats Out in November
California's jungle primary sends the top two vote-getters to the November general election, regardless of party.
Democrats have watched this system bite them for years at the congressional level. In 2012, four Democrats split the vote in a state congressional district and two Republicans advanced to the general, locking the majority party out entirely.
They learned nothing.
Now the same math is playing out on the biggest stage in the state, with nine Democratic candidates and a June 2 primary deadline closing fast.
Veteran California political analyst Paul Mitchell built a simulator using 2026 polling data that puts the odds of an all-Republican November general at 28 percent — and the number climbs every time a Republican minor candidate exits.
One already did. When Republican Jon Slavet withdrew, Mitchell's model jumped immediately.
The Berkeley poll shows why Republican consolidation is working: GOP voters have united around a single dominant priority — cutting waste, fraud, and political corruption, cited by 48 percent.
Democratic voters? Their top issue is housing at 18 percent. No single issue breaks 18 percent. No single candidate breaks 18 percent.
That is what a party in freefall looks like.
Fifteen Years Under Gavin Newsom and Democrats: What California Lost
California has not had a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.
Fifteen years of one-party rule. Fifteen years of exploding homelessness, some of the highest gas prices in the nation, a cost of living driving families out by the hundreds of thousands, and a crime wave Democrats refused to prosecute.
Hilton and Bianco are not running against a Republican record. They are running against Gavin Newsom's.
Bianco has made eliminating the California Air Resources Board a centerpiece of his campaign — the regulatory body that requires California drivers to buy special-formula gasoline unavailable in any neighboring state, contributing to the state's chronically elevated pump prices.
Hilton drew 22 percent of independent voters in the Emerson College poll while leading the full field at 17 percent.
California Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin said voters are tired of decades of Democratic failure and corruption and are looking to Republicans for solutions on affordability, public safety, and homelessness.
Democrats can keep telling themselves this state is safely blue.
Their own chairman already tried that — and eight candidates told him exactly where to go.
Sources:
- Jesus Mesa, "Republicans Could Flip California in Nightmare Scenario for Democrats—Poll," Newsweek, March 18, 2026.
- "California 2026 Poll: Hilton, Swalwell, Bianco Lead Nonpartisan Primary for Governor," Emerson College Polling, February 2026.
- "Top California Democrat flops with call for candidates to exit governor's race," KPBS Public Media, March 2026.
- "The field is set: Meet the candidates officially running for California governor," CalMatters, March 2026.
- "How California Democratic candidates could sabotage their party's race for governor," CalMatters, March 2026.
- "Poll Shows Two Republicans Leading CA Governor's Race," HotAir, March 18, 2026.
- "Conservative as California's next governor? It's looking more likely," NBC Los Angeles, March 18, 2026.
