John McCain gave a thumbs down in 2017 and blew Republicans' one chance to repeal Obamacare.
Now John Kennedy says Republicans are standing at the same crossroads – and the stakes are even higher.
Kennedy just issued a blunt warning to his own party that every senator needs to hear before it's too late.
The Last Train Is Leaving the Station
Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana pulled no punches this week when a reporter raised the idea of a third reconciliation bill.
"Those who tell us that we're going to have a third reconciliation bill have been smoking the devil's lettuce," Kennedy told reporters. "We will never have a third reconciliation bill. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it."
That's not pessimism. That's Senate math.
Budget reconciliation lets Republicans bypass the Democratic filibuster and pass major legislation with 51 votes instead of 60. Under Senate rules, each budget resolution generates exactly one reconciliation vehicle. Republicans have already burned through two.
Getting a third means passing a new budget resolution through both chambers, agreeing on fresh numbers, then writing and passing an entirely new bill – all while every Republican senator is trying to win a midterm race.
Kennedy put the stakes plainly: "This is the last major piece of legislation that we will likely pass until after the midterms."
Senate Majority Leader Thune wants to keep the reconciliation package "very, very skinny" – focused narrowly on ICE and Border Patrol funding. Kennedy isn't asking for a Christmas tree. But he is asking for more than a stub.
Republicans Have One Shot to Deliver on Cost of Living
Here is what Kennedy understands that too many of his colleagues have forgotten.
Voters did not send Republicans back to Washington to master parliamentary procedure.
They sent them to lower the cost of living.
Biden's four years of economic destruction left American families paying more for groceries, more for gas, and more to heat their homes. Egg prices. Electric bills. Rent. These are the issues keeping moms and dads awake at three in the morning.
Kennedy said Republicans should attach one or two targeted cost-of-living measures to the current bill reopening DHS funding – provisions they can pass with their own 51 votes, without waiting on Democrats who have no interest in helping.
"I'd love to have Democrats join us, but they won't," Kennedy said. "That would address what moms and dads are really worried about when they lie down to sleep at night and can't – which is the cost of living."
Kennedy isn't asking colleagues to turn the bill into a Christmas tree. One or two provisions is all he's asking for. Energy cost reductions, targeted tax relief, housing cost measures – the kind of thing most Republicans can actually agree on.
Ted Cruz raised the same idea the day before Kennedy did.
Republicans have 51 votes and a moving vehicle. What they don't have is an excuse to let it pass empty.
Don't Be John McCain
McCain's 2017 thumbs-down killed Obamacare repeal. Republicans lost the House in 2018. Two years of Democrat control followed. Then Biden. Then four years of the worst inflation in a generation pounding the working-class voters who made Trump's coalition possible.
The lesson was supposed to be simple: don't waste the window.
Republicans apparently need a reminder.
The 2026 midterms are coming. When voters pull the lever, they will be asking did Republicans actually deliver? Did they put money back in my pocket?
They won’t be asking did they keep the government funded?
Kennedy is answering that question honestly: this bill is the last chance to say yes before those voters decide whether Republicans earned the majority they were given.
Every Republican senator should be asking the same thing before they cast their vote.
Sources:
- Sen. John Kennedy, Senate Hallway Press Availability, April 18, 2026.
- Chad Pergram, "Reporter's Notebook: Senate Republicans clash over skinny DHS funding reconciliation bill," Fox News, April 16, 2026.
- Sen. John Kennedy, "Kennedy: Refusing a second reconciliation bill to help the American people is 'legislative malpractice,'" kennedy.senate.gov, November 20, 2025.
