Bill Cassidy's political career hangs by a thread.
The Louisiana Senator thought Trump supporters would forget his betrayal by 2026.
And Bill Cassidy just got the worst news possible about Louisiana Republicans forgiving his Trump betrayal.
Bill Cassidy's Trump Impeachment Vote: February 2021 Decision Haunts 2026 Reelection
February 13, 2021 is the day Bill Cassidy committed political suicide.
That's when he joined six other Republicans to vote convicting Trump of inciting insurrection after the January 6 Capitol riot.
The Louisiana Republican Party censured him within hours, condemning his vote "in the strongest possible terms."
Cassidy's own home parish, East Baton Rouge, declared him "an object of shame."
State Representative Blake Miguez warned him then: "Don't expect a warm welcome when you come home to Louisiana!"
Cassidy bet that Trump supporters would move on by 2026 when his reelection came up.
He was dead wrong.
Louisiana Closed Primary 2026: New System Threatens Bill Cassidy Reelection
For years, Louisiana used a "jungle primary" where all candidates competed on the same ballot regardless of party.
Cassidy cruised to reelection in 2020 with nearly 60% in that format before his Trump betrayal.
The state legislature changed the system in 2024, adopting closed partisan primaries for congressional races.
Now Cassidy faces Republican primary voters only for the first time in his career.
Those are the exact voters who never forgave his impeachment vote.
Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming announced his challenge in December 2024.
Fleming's entire message: Cassidy betrayed Trump and Louisiana won't forgive it.
"Those who turned their backs on him and America First were not committed to his fight to make America great," Fleming said.
Recent polling from JMC Analytics shows Fleming holding a slight two-point lead over Cassidy among likely Republican voters.
Even worse for Cassidy, other Republicans are circling.
State Senator Blake Miguez entered the race.
Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta joined the pile-on.
Congresswoman Julia Letlow is seriously considering jumping in, with encouragement from the White House according to multiple sources.
Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry has been urging Trump to support a primary challenger to Cassidy.
The wolves smell blood.
Trump Slams Bill Cassidy: President Calls Louisiana Senator 'Disloyal Lightweight'
Cassidy secured Trump's endorsement in his 2020 race before the impeachment vote.
Trump hasn't forgotten.
The President slammed Cassidy last year as "one of the worst senators" and a "disloyal lightweight."
Cassidy tried making amends by voting to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services Secretary despite his deep opposition to Kennedy's anti-vaccine views.
The Senator also co-sponsored Trump's energy bill pushing for more oil and gas lease sales.
Louisiana Republicans aren't buying Cassidy's sudden loyalty to Trump.
"The biggest hurdle is going to be the impeachment vote. That's what he has to overcome. And I don't think he has the mindset to say, 'I made a mistake,'" Eddie Rispone, the 2019 Republican gubernatorial nominee, told reporters.
RINO Senators Who Voted to Convict Trump: Only 3 Still Serve in 2026
Only three Republicans who voted to convict Trump in 2021 still serve in the Senate today.
Cassidy, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Susan Collins of Maine.
Murkowski and Collins also face reelection in 2026.
Richard Burr of North Carolina and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania retired rather than face voters.
Ben Sasse of Nebraska resigned to become a university president.
Cassidy thought five years between his impeachment vote and reelection would be enough time for Louisiana Republicans to forget.
He was betting that Trump's influence would fade.
Instead, Trump won a landslide reelection in 2024 and Louisiana Republicans are more loyal to Trump than ever.
Bill Cassidy 2026 Campaign Strategy: Money Won't Save Louisiana Senator From Trump Voters
Cassidy has more campaign cash than any incumbent Louisiana Senator heading into reelection.
Money won't save him if Republican primary voters stay angry about his Trump betrayal.
A Morning Consult poll showed 69% of Louisiana Republicans approve of Cassidy's job performance.
That sounds strong until you realize it's general approval, not primary election support where Trump loyalty dominates.
When asked about Fleming's challenge, Cassidy shrugged it off: "It is what it is."
That's not confidence.
That's a man who knows what's coming.
Louisiana holds its Republican primary on April 18, 2026.
Cassidy faces the political execution he earned when he stabbed Trump in the back five years ago.
Sources:
- Associated Press, "Louisiana governor pushes Trump to weigh primary challenger to GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy," January 2026.
- Cook Political Report, "Bayou Battle Looms as Cassidy Tries To Repent From Trump Impeachment Vote," May 21, 2025.
- Greg LaRose, "Sen. Bill Cassidy is in obvious damage-control mode ahead of Louisiana's 2026 election cycle," Louisiana Illuminator, February 9, 2025.
- Louisiana Advocate, "Bill Cassidy's vote to convict Trump draws swift, harsh backlash from Louisiana Republicans," February 13, 2021.
- NBC News, "GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy draws primary challenger citing Trump impeachment vote," December 4, 2024.
- Punchbowl News, "Fleming makes his pro-Trump case against Cassidy," March 7, 2025.
- Roll Call, "Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy draws primary challenge from former Hill colleague," December 4, 2024.
- The Hill, "Louisiana GOP votes to censure Cassidy over impeachment vote," February 14, 2021.
