The results of the 2022 Midterm elections could change the direction of the country – or at least mitigate the damage the current President is doing.
And as high as the stakes are this November for the country – they’re equally as high on a personal level for Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi.
And now these predictions from two of the smartest men in politics have the leaders of the Democrat Party scrambling.
Historically, when one party has the trifecta of the Presidency and majorities in both Houses of Congress, they don’t fare too well in midterm elections.
If the party in power’s policies lead to a struggling economy, the historic look at midterms is even worse for that party.
Additionally, if the President’s approval ratings are low, history tells us midterms tend to be an ugly night for the party in power.
In 2022, Democrats have the White House and control of the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate.
America is in a recession, there is runaway inflation, record high gas prices, the stock market is in a free fall and the labor force participation rate is in the toilet.
Incumbent President Joe Biden has approval numbers typically polling in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.
Democrats should be dreading Tuesday, November 8.
However, despite all the history working against them, the blue team is holding close in generic Congressional ballot polling and if you went by what the polls say, would keep control of the Senate, and perhaps even add a seat or two to their majority.
How can that be?
Is it what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)said last month that GOP primary voters have been nominating “low quality” candidates?
Or could it be that the Republican base is fed up with a party that has enough RINOs to compromise away things like our second amendment rights?
Maybe it’s that the base isn’t energized for an election that doesn’t have Trump at the top of the ballot?
Or, maybe, just maybe, Big Media is manipulating the polls to drive the supposed, “Democrat comeback” narrative?
Two of the smartest men in politics have both recently noticed a strange trend in poll-reporting this election cycle.
Typically, by this point in the election cycle, pollsters switch from “registered voter” models to “likely voter” models.
However, author of the biennial Almanac of American Politics, Michael Barone noticed that switch hasn’t happened yet this year.
And while that may sound subtle, according to Barone, it makes a big difference.
“This year, many firms have been surprisingly tardy in switching from registered voter to likely voter samples, even as early voting has started in some states,” Barone wrote. “As is usual, the narrower group of likely voters tends to be more Republican, as is suggested by the Republican advantage this year in primary turnout. As National Review’s Jim Geraghty points out, the current generic polls that sample likely voters show Republicans ahead by 2.8 points.”
Likewise, former Speaker of the House and author of the Contract with America, Newt Gingrich has noticed this odd practice from pollsters commissioned by corporate-controlled media outlets.
Gingrich has personal experience instructing him on the not-so-subtle difference between “registered voters,” and “likely voters.”
“In October 1994, I was going into a radio interview in Boise, Idaho,” Gingrich recalled. “On the way in, I glanced at a newspaper headline that said, ‘Democrats gaining in election.’ I spent the entire hour on radio wondering how that was possible. All our data showed us gaining ground…the headline just did not make sense. Sure enough, when the interview was over I picked up the paper. It turned out Democrats were gaining ground among people who were unlikely to vote. Republicans were widening their lead among people likely to vote.”
A month later, Gingrich would rejoice as the “Republican Revolution” led the GOP to unified control of Congress for the first time since 1952 – with Republicans picking up eight seats in the Senate and netting a 54-seat gain in the House.
Gingrich believes these tactics by left-leaning pollsters is intentional.
“Every August before elections, the liberal propaganda media try to make the Republican case appear hopeless,” Gingrich wrote. “They want to demoralize donors, volunteers, and even candidates.”
As for Barone, he sums it up nicely pointing out the only poll that matters is on election day.
“We’ll have a better idea…on Nov. 9,” Barone wrote.
