With all signs indicating that the race could easily go either way, no one knows exactly how the Presidential election will shake out.
But staffers found Kamala Harris was backed into a corner and forced to pull the trigger on an unexpected shakeup.
And Kamala Harris’ campaign came to a brutal realization as Trump takes the lead in three critical battleground states.
The battlegrounds are shifting beneath Kamala’s feet
As has been said ad nauseum at this point in the election cycle, it’s most likely that the 2024 Presidential race will ultimately come down to seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in all but two of those states, as Michigan and Wisconsin have seemingly begun to shift back towards the Kamala campaign.
While all five of Trump’s leads in those states – as well as Kamala’s leads in Michigan and Wisconsin – are by the slimmest of margins, the RCP polling average indicates that the former President is currently running strongest in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, even though he leads those states by just 1-2%.
Winning Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina are crucial for Trump, as locking up those three states would allow him to reach the winning 270 electoral vote threshold by winning just one of the so-called “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
That’s largely why all eyes have been on Pennsylvania throughout the election cycle, and why both campaigns have gone all-in on winning the Keystone State.
Now, a new poll from the Emerson College Polling Center is offering the Trump campaign a boost of confidence about their chances in Pennsylvania heading into Election Day.
Per the poll, Trump is currently leading Kamala, 49% to 48%, in the state.
But most importantly, when it comes to why Pennsylvania voters are breaking towards Trump, Emerson found that the former President’s support is largely built on the voter sentiment that the country is on the wrong track.
“Voters who decided over a month ago favor Trump 51% to 47%, while voters who made up their mind within the past month/week lean toward Harris 52% to 45%,” Emerson College Polling Center director Spencer Kimball noted.
Of course, losing Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes wouldn’t be the end of the world for Kamala if she could ensure that she locked up other battleground states.
What’s going on in North Carolina?
Many Democrats, including Kamala’s staff, originally thought that North Carolina would be a state they could pick up in the event one of the “blue wall” states fell to Trump.
But Emerson’s polling data indicates that Trump is leading Kamala, 50% to 48%, in the Old North State.
To make matters even worse for the Kamala campaign, Emerson also found that Trump is currently leading Kamala in Wisconsin, 49% to 48%.
Needless to say, a loss in Wisconsin would ultimately be a death knell for Kamala, especially if Pennsylvania goes to Trump as well.
If their polls are an accurate snapshot of the current feelings of voters in North Carolina and Wisconsin, Emerson explained that Trump’s apparent leads are largely built on the fact that Kamala’s support amongst male voters has cratered, creating a historic gender gap.
“There is a clear gender divide, with men favoring Trump more strongly than women for Harris,” Kimball wrote. “In North Carolina, men back Trump by 13 points, while women support Harris by seven points. In Wisconsin, men support Trump by 12, while women favor Harris by nine points.”
Interestingly, the Kamala campaign did recently give an indication that Emerson’s polls may be accurate when they began canceling millions of dollars in ad buys in North Carolina.
“Yesterday, the Kamala Harris campaign placed new #NCPol ad reservations totaling $2.7m for the final week of the election,” Adimpact Politics wrote on X. “This morning, the campaign is cutting from those NC reservations. So far today, we’ve seen over $2m removed from NC markets.”
#Election2024: Yesterday, the Kamala Harris campaign placed new #NCPol ad reservations totaling $2.7m for the final week of the election. This morning, the campaign is cutting from those NC reservations. So far today, we’ve seen over $2m removed from NC markets.
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) October 29, 2024
If the Kamala campaign is legitimately pulling its advertising dollars from North Carolina, it could indicate that they are cutting their losses in a state Trump carried in each of his first two races and diverting those resources to the “blue wall” states in a last ditch effort to save their campaign.
At this point, the only thing that’s certain is that we’ll finally have the answers to many of these questions once voters head to the polls on Election Day.
