Republicans thought they had 2026 locked up after Trump's landslide victory.
But one problem keeps getting worse.
And Kellyanne Conway just admitted one nightmare to Laura Ingraham that has Republicans scrambling before midterms.
Republicans Are Heading for the Exits in Record Numbers
Kellyanne Conway dropped a bombshell warning on Fox News that should terrify every Republican looking at the 2026 midterms.
The former Trump campaign manager told Laura Ingraham she's "worried a lot more Republicans want to retire this year rather than hang on there and grow our slim majority."
Conway knows what she's talking about — she ran the most successful Republican Presidential campaign in modern history.
And the numbers back up her fears.
A historically large share of House members have already decided against running for reelection in 2026, with more lawmakers expected to step aside in the months ahead.
As of late January 2026, exactly 28 Republican members of the U.S. House and 21 Democratic members have announced they will not seek re-election this year.
That two-to-one ratio should set off alarm bells across the Republican Party.
When this many Republicans bail on Washington, D.C. it usually means they see a wave coming.
The pattern is eerily familiar to anyone who remembers 2018.
At this same point before that disastrous midterm, Republicans had announced 20 retirements.
Democrats swept to a 40-seat gain that November and took control of the House.
Conway pointed to another massive headache Republicans face without Trump on the ballot.
"These are tough, Laura… President Trump admitted that today to your colleague Will Cain," Conway said. "He said midterms are always tough, but we're going to try to reverse the trend by succeeding and making sure people understand that they own the success."
The president's party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections.
It's happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938.
Conway Revealed Why Republicans Can't Win Without Trump
Conway got brutally honest about the 2022 midterms when Republicans barely squeaked out a nine-seat gain despite Biden's terrible approval ratings.
"I was critical of the 2022 midterms because they were without Trump on the ballot," Conway explained. "I thought a lot of our candidates failed to complete their sentences."
She said Republican candidates threw around words like "socialist," "inflation," "Biden," "Afghanistan," and "Kamala" but never told voters what they'd actually do about those problems.
"Those are barely words — not sentences," Conway stated.
Voters expect results, not buzzwords.
"We the people will accept — and indeed we expect — a full sentence of what you've done for us," Conway added.
But Conway identified the real problem Republicans face in midterms.
Trump has what she called "inimitable connective tissue with people" that other Republicans just don't have.
"When he's on the ballot, he does help folks come over the finish line," Conway said. "Without him on the ballot, it's tough."
The data suggest Conway could be right on this.
In 2018, when Trump wasn't on the ballot, total support for House Republican candidates fell by more than 11.9 million votes — a 19% drop from 2016 levels.
Of course, it may not be exactly as she states.
Many voters simply don't show up when there isn’t a “top of ticket” election.
That seems truer for Trump than previous party heads.
But it applies to all candidates to a degree when there isn’t a presidential or other marquee statewide race in an election cycle.
Second, elections are usually won and lost on ground game organization, and grassroots volunteer mobilization. We’re talking door knockers and phone bankers who do the supporter identification canvassing and shoe-leather Get Out The Vote efforts at the grassroots.
Those things tend to be built on small dollar donations – dollars that in 2018, Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign was hovering up a lot of.
That won’t be as much of the case this year unless somehow there's some major legal developments that clear the way for him running for a third term.
Barring that happening, it still stands that down-ballot Republicans not having his name on the ballot this fall won’t have it as easy as those running when he was.
Democrats only need to net three seats to take over the House.
With 28 Republicans already heading for the exits and Trump unable to drive turnout from the top of the ticket, Conway's nightmare scenario is looking more like reality every day.
Republicans better hope Trump can "reverse the trend" with policy wins voters can feel in their wallets.
Because right now, the midterm math looks brutal for the GOP.
Sources:
- Mariane Angela, "Kellyanne Conway Describes Another Problem to Derail GOP's Midterm Chances," Daily Caller News Foundation, January 27, 2026.
- "List of U.S. House incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2026," Ballotpedia, January 2026.
- "Republican Gains in 2022 Midterms Driven Mostly by Turnout Advantage," Pew Research Center, July 12, 2023.
- William H. Frey, "What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections," Brookings Institution, August 28, 2025.
- Lisa Desjardins, "How retirements and redistricting could impact the 2026 midterms," PBS News, December 2025.
