Ken Paxton has quietly built a reputation as a fighter for Texas values.
John Cornyn, meanwhile, has raised eyebrows with his willingness to compromise with Democrats.
And Ken Paxton dropped this bombshell poll that has John Cornyn panicking about his political future.
Paxton crushing Cornyn in early polling
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has emerged as a serious threat to sitting U.S. Senator John Cornyn’s reelection hopes, according to a shocking new poll.
The survey, released by the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), shows Paxton leading Cornyn by a staggering 16 percentage points in a potential 2026 Republican primary matchup.
In a head-to-head contest, Paxton secured 56% support compared to just 40% for Cornyn, despite SLF being a super PAC that actively supports Cornyn’s reelection bid.
Even more concerning for Team Cornyn, when Republican Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt was added to create a three-way race, Paxton still dominated with 44% compared to Cornyn’s 34% and Hunt’s 19%.
The poll was conducted by the Tarrance Group from April 27 to May 1, as first reported by Punchbowl News.
Trump endorsement becomes the prize
Behind the scenes, Cornyn’s allies are working overtime to secure a critical endorsement from President Donald Trump.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Tim Scott have personally reached out to Trump, urging him to back Cornyn in the upcoming GOP primary.
So far, Trump has kept his powder dry, making no endorsement in what could become one of the most closely watched Republican primaries of the 2026 cycle.
Cornyn’s campaign adviser Matt Mackowiak attempted to highlight the Senator’s loyalty to Trump, telling reporters: “Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as President and continues to be his close legislative ally.”
Democrats see potential opportunity
While Republicans battle for the nomination, Democrats are eyeing the race with increasing interest.
The poll contained one bright spot for Cornyn – in hypothetical general election matchups against former Democratic Texas Rep. Colin Allred, Cornyn led by 6 points and Hunt led by 4 points, while Paxton actually trailed Allred by 1 point.
Allred, who lost to Republican Senator Ted Cruz by 8.5 points in 2024, is reportedly considering another Senate run.
SLF Communications Director Chris Gustafson seized on this data point, telling Punchbowl News: “The numbers don’t lie – John Cornyn is in a far better early position than Ken Paxton. Texans only need one quick look at Paxton’s record before his support plummets, and it’s clear he would risk delivering the Senate majority to Chuck Schumer.”
Primary battle could get ugly
The early poll numbers suggest Texas Republicans may be in for a bruising primary battle that could expose deep divisions within the party.
Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, has occasionally faced criticism from the party’s base for working across the aisle with Democrats on issues like gun legislation.
Paxton, meanwhile, has built his reputation as a staunch conservative and Trump ally who has led numerous legal challenges against the Biden administration’s policies.
The non-partisan Cook Political Report still rates the Texas Senate seat as “Solid R,” indicating that whoever emerges from the Republican primary will likely keep the seat in GOP hands, regardless of Democratic dreams of a potential “blue wave” in 2026.
Paxton’s campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the poll results.
However, the substantial lead he currently enjoys over a sitting U.S. Senator sends a clear message about where Texas Republican voters’ loyalties may lie as the 2026 election cycle begins to take shape.
