Lindsey Graham faces serious threats to his Senate seat as a former statewide officeholder considers a primary challenge.
Lindsey Graham thought he was safe in his Senate seat.
The South Carolina Republican has beaten back primary challenges before.
But Lindsey Graham got some terrible news that could end his Senate career for good.
Former South Carolina Lieutenant Governor considers primary challenge
Andre Bauer, the former lieutenant governor of South Carolina, is seriously considering mounting a primary challenge against Senator Lindsey Graham in 2026.
This represents the most significant threat Graham has faced from within his own party in years.
Bauer served as South Carolina’s lieutenant governor from 2003 to 2011 and has won statewide office twice before.
"I’m giving it careful consideration," Bauer told the Washington Examiner in an exclusive interview.
Unlike previous Graham challengers who were political unknowns, Bauer brings serious name recognition and proven vote-getting ability to a potential race.
The former lieutenant governor didn’t hold back in his criticism of Graham’s record.
"He’s lost his way. It’s more foreign wars. It’s not supporting an America First agenda," Bauer stated.
This critique strikes at the heart of Graham’s vulnerability with the Republican base – his hawkish foreign policy positions that often put him at odds with President Trump’s America First approach.
Graham’s approval numbers show weakness
Recent polling suggests Graham may be more vulnerable than his past primary victories indicate.
A Winthrop University survey taken in late May showed Graham with just a 34% approval rating among all voters.
While a June Quantus Insights poll showed higher approval at 41% statewide and 68% among Republican voters, those numbers still reveal significant softness for an incumbent senator.
Bauer believes he can exploit this weakness by painting Graham as out of touch with South Carolina voters.
"I’m just not banging that gong anymore. I’m not supporting that anymore," Bauer said about Graham’s foreign policy positions. "I’m fed up with it, and somebody’s got to give the voters of South Carolina an alternative."
The former lieutenant governor specifically criticized Graham’s hawkish foreign policy positions, calling him a globalist who doesn’t represent South Carolina values.
Trump factor complicates the race
The relationship between Trump and both candidates adds complexity to any potential primary battle.
While it couldn’t certainly change, Graham secured Trump’s "complete and total endorsement" in March and has built his reelection campaign around the notion that he’s somehow part of the America First movement.
Graham spokeswoman Abby Zilch emphasized this connection in a statement: "Senator Graham is focused on helping Trump enact his America First agenda — cutting taxes, eliminating waste, funding border security, and standing with Israel against religious Nazis who want to wipe them off the map."
However, Bauer pointed to his own history with Trump as a potential advantage.
At a 2023 presidential campaign stop, Trump said Bauer could "run for almost any office and win" while thanking South Carolina delegation members who backed him.
"He’s expressed confidence in me four or five times in a row that I’ve seen him," Bauer told the Washington Examiner.
Bauer served as a CNN contributor defending Trump’s first term and has maintained a relationship with the President over the years.
According to the Washington Examiner, Bauer says Trump has privately urged him to get back into politics for years.
Money and establishment support favor Graham
If Bauer does enter the race, he’ll face significant financial and institutional disadvantages.
Graham announced his campaign with $15.6 million already committed toward his reelection.
The incumbent senator has also locked up major endorsements, including Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Tim Scott as campaign chairs.
Bauer framed Graham’s fundraising advantage as a weakness, calling it "lobbyist" money while promising to campaign in all of South Carolina’s counties.
"He’s so disliked in South Carolina, he’s going to need all the money he can get to reinvent himself," Bauer said.
The former lieutenant governor positioned himself as an outsider, describing himself as a small business owner and family man who spent time away from government.
Establishment pushback already beginning
Bauer revealed that an unnamed South Carolina congressman called to discourage him from entering the race.
The lawmaker allegedly warned him it would be a "vicious race" and "that if you don’t take the king out, life can be very difficult."
"And again, that tells me they’re concerned," Bauer responded.
This kind of pressure suggests the Republican establishment views Bauer as a credible threat who could potentially damage Graham.
Alex Latcham, who oversaw Trump campaign operations in South Carolina, disputed Bauer’s claim of support as "bulls***." Latcham is now executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, the outside group that protects GOP incumbents.
Graham’s primary history shows vulnerability
While Graham has defeated past primary challengers, the margins suggest potential weakness.
In 2020, his closest Republican primary competitor attracted 17% of the vote.
Graham has also faced grassroots opposition throughout his career, including censures from county Republican parties and occasional booing at Trump rallies.
This pattern of discontent could provide an opening for a well-known challenger like Bauer.
The former lieutenant governor plans to tap into years of grassroots discontent with Graham if he decides to run.
Decision coming soon
Bauer said he would announce his decision in the "near future" after making calls to business leaders and other trusted advisors.
"I am calling people that I trust, and overwhelmingly, I’ve never seen anything like it — people feel like it’s time for a change. They feel like Lindsey does not represent South Carolina," Bauer explained.
The potential primary challenge comes as South Carolina faces an opening for governor, with several Republican House members considering runs for higher office.
This could create a competitive Republican primary environment across multiple races in 2026.
Mark Lynch, a businessman promising to put $5 million of his own money into a Senate race, represents another potential challenger to Graham.
On the Democrat side, Annie Andrews announced her challenge to Graham in May after an unsuccessful 2022 House run.
But the real threat to Graham’s political survival will come from within his own party – and Bauer represents perhaps the most serious Republican challenge entering the fray he’s faced in years.
