Democrats are still reeling from their crushing defeat in 2024.
The party promised a comprehensive examination of what went wrong.
But Nate Silver just exposed the one big lie Democrats keep telling themselves.
The Democrat Party lost big in November 2024 when Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris and Republicans won control of both the House and Senate.
DNC Chairman Ken Martin promised a thorough autopsy of the disaster to help Democrats learn from their mistakes and chart a path forward.
But after months of work interviewing hundreds of Democrats across all 50 states, Martin decided to bury the report and never release it publicly.
Democrats bury the evidence rather than confront the truth
Martin claimed releasing the autopsy would be "a distraction" from winning the 2026 midterms.
"Here's our North Star: does this help us win?" Martin stated. "If the answer is no, it's a distraction from the core mission."
The decision sparked fury from within the Democrat Party itself.
Former DNC Vice Chair David Hogg blasted the move on social media.
"They are spiking an autopsy of the election that gave us Trump 2.0," Hogg wrote. "If party leaders won't take the steps required to rebuild ourselves into a winning coalition, we will take it into our own hands."
Even Senate Democrats broke ranks over the coverup.
U.S. Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) called for the DNC to release the report.
"I believe the DNC should release the report because 1) that's what they said they were going to do 2) this is going to be a thing 3) if there's good analysis we should see it," Schatz posted on X.
Democrat strategist Lis Smith wrote that she suspects "the reasons why this isn't being released are precisely the reasons why it should be released."
Jon Favreau, who served as speechwriter to former President Barack Obama, called the decision "unreal."
Prominent pollster drops a truth bomb Democrats can't handle
Pollster Nate Silver — founder of FiveThirtyEight and one of the most respected analysts in politics — unloaded on Democrats for refusing to face reality.
"I've been surprised, to some extent, by the unwillingness of a certain Democratic faction to admit they f—– up last year," Silver said in an interview with Semafor.
Silver pointed to a progressive group's postmortem that blamed Democrats for not being radical enough.
"If you look, for example, at the recent Way to Win postmortem, it's quite literally claiming that Democrats did nothing wrong except failing to fight hard enough for progressive ideas," Silver explained. "There's no mention of Biden's debate with Trump, for example."
The pollster then connected the dots between the buried autopsy and California Governor Gavin Newsom's emerging presidential campaign.
"You'd think after last year that Democrats would be phobic of nominating another prominent elected official from California with a tired mix of vaguely progressive ideas," Silver stated.
Newsom has become the front-runner for the 2028 Democrat nomination after spending the past year attacking Trump and positioning himself as the party's leading fighter.
The California governor openly admitted he's considering a presidential run in multiple recent interviews.
"Yeah, I'd be lying otherwise," Newsom told CBS News when asked if he was giving a presidential bid serious thought.
Silver torches Democrats for repeating the same failed playbook
Silver didn't mince words about where Democrats are headed if they continue down this path.
"The proverbial definition of insanity is trying the same thing again and expecting a different result," Silver said.
He warned that the "#Resistance" faction was quickly becoming "a self-contained epistemic bubble."
Look at the pattern here. In 2016, Democrats lost to Trump and blamed Russia, James Comey, and sexism — anything except Hillary's terrible campaign. After 2024, they're doing the exact same thing, except now they're literally hiding the evidence.
That buried autopsy probably shows what everyone already knows: Harris blew through $1 billion chasing suburban Republicans who voted for Trump anyway. Meanwhile, Black and Latino voters in Philadelphia stayed home because the campaign offered them nothing but lectures about democracy being on the ballot.
The DNC knows it. Nate Silver knows it. But they'd rather run Gavin Newsom — another California progressive — than admit their whole strategy is bankrupt.
Newsom embodies everything voters just rejected
Here's what makes this even more insane: Newsom governed California into a homelessness catastrophe that turned San Francisco and Los Angeles into open-air drug markets.
California has over 187,000 homeless people despite Newsom spending $37 billion on the crisis since 2019.⁸
That's not a typo — $37 billion to make the problem worse.
A state audit found homelessness increased 53% from 2013 to 2023 under policies Newsom championed.⁹
And when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited San Francisco for a summit, Newsom magically cleaned up the tent cities and filth overnight — proving he could fix the problem anytime but chose not to for regular Californians.¹⁰
Businesses are fleeing California like rats off a sinking ship. The rate of companies leaving the state more than doubled in 2021, with 153 headquarters relocating that year alone.¹¹
Oracle and Tesla moved to Texas. Major tech companies are building campuses anywhere but California.
This is the guy Democrats want to nominate in 2028.
Silver called out the obvious: "You'd think after last year that Democrats would be phobic of nominating another prominent elected official from California with a tired mix of vaguely progressive ideas."⁴
But Democrats don't think. They double down.
They spent $1 billion in 2024 screaming that Trump was a threat to democracy while he talked about grocery prices, gas prices, and border security.
Harris lost every single swing state. Trump won the popular vote for the first time since 2004.
Now Democrats are burying the autopsy that would explain why, promoting the same failed consultants who blew $1 billion, and elevating another California progressive who can't even keep human feces off San Francisco sidewalks.
Nate Silver sees through the charade. Voters saw through it in 2024. And they'll see through it again in 2028 if Democrats keep lying to themselves.
¹ Lindsay Kornick, "Pollster Nate Silver shocked by Democratic unwillingness to 'admit they f—– up' in 2024," Fox News, December 29, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ Ibid.
⁵ Ibid.
⁶ "DNC kills 2024 election autopsy report after major Democratic losses," Fox News, December 19, 2025.
⁷ Ibid.
⁸ "Top 50 Disasters Gov. Gavin Newsom Has Ushered into California: 2025 Edition," California Globe, 2025.
⁹ "Gavin Newsom's Misstatement of the State," California Policy Center, June 28, 2024.
¹⁰ Ibid.
¹¹ Tessa McLean, "'No end in sight' to businesses leaving Calif., report says," SFGATE, November 4, 2022.
