Donald Trump made three nominations to the U.S. Supreme Court in his first term.
Trump was hoping he would get a second bite at the apple in his second term.
But President-elect Donald Trump just got some bad news about this possible Supreme Court retirement.
The Ruth Bader Ginsburg lesson
The current 6-3 conservative-leaning majority on the Supreme Court is owed to Donald Trump.
And it’s because Ruth Bader Ginsburg didn’t retire when the conditions lined up for her party to replace her.
Obama and other leading Democrats tried to talk Ginsburg into retiring back in 2013, after doctors first diagnosed Ginsburg with pancreatic cancer.
At that time, Obama had just won re-election and Democrats controlled the Senate.
But Ginsburg stubbornly refused to retire.
Political insiders suspected Ginsburg – a radical left-wing feminist – was holding out so Hillary Clinton could name her replacement when she ascended to the presidency in 2016.
Of course, Donald Trump’s surprise election victory threw a monkey wrench into those plans.
And over the course of the next four years, it became obvious to everyone Ginsburg had no business being on the court.
Ginsburg fell asleep during oral arguments.
And Ginsburg had multiple health issues that prevented her from attending many of the oral arguments.
Democrats were then forced to hold their breath and hope Ginsburg could hold on through the 2020 election in hopes that a Democrat could defeat Donald Trump and pick her replacement come 2021.
But Ginsburg passed away in September 2020.
Shortly after Ginsburg’s passing, Donald Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to the high court.
The Republican-led Senate swiftly confirmed Barrett, giving conservatives a 6-3 majority on the court.
Barrett then provided the fifth and decisive vote on overturning Roe v. Wade and returning the issue of abortion back to the states.
Conservatives looking to cement their majority for years to come
Conservatives saw firsthand how a Justice hanging on too long could lead to disaster.
The lesson the Right internalized was that Justices needed to retire when the political dynamics in the Senate allowed for the confirmation of the most ideologically sound replacement.
Donald Trump winning the 2024 election and coming to the Senate with a 53-47 Republican majority meant many on the Right believed now was the time for Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas to retire.
Alito and Thomas are the two oldest justices on the bench.
If Alito and Thomas retire before 2026 – the last year Trump is guaranteed to have a GOP-run Senate because the midterms are that November – Trump could confirm two conservative justices in their 40s.
Theoretically, that could ensure conservatives would hold a majority on the court into 2050.
But Justice Alito – at least – isn’t willing to retire.
A source close to Alito told the Wall Street Journal that Alito won’t step down just because it’s in the best interest of the conservative movement.
“Despite what some people may think, this is a man who has never thought about this job from a political perspective,” the source stated. “The idea that he’s going to retire for political considerations is not consistent with who he is.”
The source added they were speaking out now in hopes of “tamping down speculation among legal activists that the 74-year-old jurist was readying to retire so that President-elect Donald Trump could fill his seat with a younger conservative.”
But Alito and Thomas remaining on the bench through Trump’s term could put the conservative majority at risk.
The Democrats could take control of the Senate in 2026 and a Democrat could win the White House in 2028.
And that Democrat President could end up picking Alito and Thomas’s replacements and hand the Left a 5-4 majority on the Supreme Court.
On the other hand, asking the two most conservative Justices on the bench to retire could itself put the conservative majority at risk, as time and again new Justices have served as a disappointment compared to what they appeared on paper.
Such has been the case on a number of key issues with Barrett.
