Texas turns into ground zero for a GOP civil war as Ken Paxton rocks Senator John Cornyn and the 2026 Senate race shakes up with new challengers from both parties.
The Texas Senate race just got a whole lot more interesting.
John Cornyn thought he could cruise to reelection.
But Texas has become ground zero for a civil war in the GOP.
Ken Paxton’s commanding lead shocks the establishment
When Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton jumped into the Republican primary to challenge Senator John Cornyn, the political establishment dismissed it as a long shot.
They couldn’t have been more wrong.
New polling from multiple sources shows Paxton leading Cornyn by significant margins, with recent surveys showing leads ranging from 9 to 22 points.
That’s a double-digit margin that has sent shockwaves through the Texas Republican establishment.
Cornyn has been in the Senate since 2002 and was once considered a shoo-in for reelection.
But his moderate voting record and willingness to work with Democrats has made him a target for conservative primary challengers.
Paxton’s entry into the race gave those frustrated conservatives a champion they could rally behind.
More Republicans eye the prize
The devastating poll numbers for Cornyn have other Republicans taking notice.
Representative Ronny Jackson has been quietly considering a Senate run for years, but had gone quiet after Paxton entered the race.
Now with Cornyn’s poll numbers in free fall, Jackson is reportedly reconsidering jumping into the race.
Jackson served as White House physician under both President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump.
His medical expertise and Trump administration experience could make him a formidable candidate.
Representative Wesley Hunt is also considering a bid for the Senate seat.
Hunt is a West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot who represents a Houston-area district.
In polling that includes multiple candidates, Paxton still leads with Hunt trailing significantly behind both Paxton and Cornyn.
Those numbers show that Cornyn’s problems run deeper than just one strong challenger.
Democrats scramble to find their champion
The chaos in the Republican primary has Democrats sensing an opportunity.
Representative Joaquin Castro publicly confirmed he’s considering jumping into the race.
Castro has represented San Antonio in Congress since 2013 and his twin brother Julián ran for President in 2020.
His family’s political connections and name recognition could make him a strong candidate.
Former Representatives Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke are also publicly considering runs.
Allred represented a Dallas-area district before losing his seat in 2022.
O’Rourke became a Democrat darling after his close Senate race against Ted Cruz in 2018, though he’s lost every statewide race he’s run since then.
State Representative James Talarico rounds out the list of potential Democrat candidates.
Astronaut Terry Virts is currently the only Democrat officially in the race.
Behind-the-scenes coordination to avoid bloodbath
The four potential Democrat candidates – Castro, Allred, O’Rourke, and Talarico – reportedly met in May to discuss the race.
Sources suggest they’re coordinating to avoid a brutal primary that could weaken the eventual nominee, though all four remained interested in the Senate race rather than other statewide offices.
This kind of behind-the-scenes coordination shows how seriously Democrats are taking their chances in Texas.
The state has been trending purple in recent years, and a chaotic Republican primary could give Democrats their best shot at flipping the seat.
What this means for the future
Cornyn’s polling collapse reveals the growing divide within the Republican Party between establishment figures and grassroots conservatives.
Paxton’s commanding lead shows that Texas Republicans want fighters, not dealmakers.
Cornyn’s willingness to work across the aisle may have earned him praise from Washington, D.C. insiders, but it’s clearly not what his own voters want.
The Senator’s struggles could be a preview of what’s coming for other establishment Republicans who’ve strayed too far from conservative principles.
If Paxton, or perhaps Jackson, can knock off a sitting Senator with Cornyn’s name recognition and fundraising advantages, it would send a message that no establishment Republican is safe.
For Democrats, the chaos in the Republican primary represents their best chance to compete in Texas in years.
A wounded Republican nominee emerging from a bloody primary could be vulnerable in a general election.
The Texas Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests of 2026.
John Cornyn better hope he can turn things around quickly, because Ken Paxton isn’t backing down.