Last week's election results felt like a punch to the gut for Virginia conservatives.
Democrats swept every statewide race including electing a man who fantasized about murdering a colleague's children.
But Virginia conservatives just learned the answer to one crucial question on how to win after the election gut punch – is the commonwealth truly lost or can it be saved?
The answer might surprise anyone ready to write off Virginia as the next California.
Democrats completed their statewide sweep last Tuesday night.
"If there's one thing I've learned about politics since I won my first election in 2019, the pendulum swings…sometimes too much, especially here in Virginia," U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans wrote on social media.¹
She pointed to last year when Republicans swept the country and secured a trifecta in Washington while Democrats just captured a super-majority in Richmond this week.
"The pendulum will swing again which sets Republicans up for success next year, when I am back on the ballot," Kiggans added.²
Her district faces a Democrat redistricting scheme designed to flip her seat, but Kiggans is optimistic.
Virginia isn't California – and that's the whole point
Democrats want conservatives to believe Virginia is permanently blue and the fight is over.
That's exactly what they said after Terry McAuliffe won the governor's race in 2013 and Democrats controlled all three statewide offices through 2021.³
Then Glenn Youngkin happened.
The 2021 red wave didn't just capture the governor's mansion – Republicans swept all three statewide races and nearly took control of the House of Delegates.⁴
Youngkin won by running on parental rights in education while Democrat Terry McAuliffe made the fatal mistake of telling parents they shouldn't influence what schools teach.⁵
Winsome Earle-Sears became the first Black woman elected to statewide office in Virginia as lieutenant governor.
Jason Miyares won the attorney general race by focusing on law and order and public safety.⁶
That was just four years ago in a state Joe Biden had won by 10 percentage points in 2020.⁷
Last Tuesday might have been a little different if Republicans at every level – including Kiggans who is one of the most moderate members of the GOP Caucus in Washington, D.C. – had governed even a little more like the conservatives they claim to be.
Nevertheless, Virginia has a long history of serving as a political barometer – the commonwealth almost always elects a governor from the party opposite the one in the White House.
The only exception since the 1970s was McAuliffe's 2013 victory.⁸
Youngkin's 2021 win followed the pattern after Biden's presidency began.
Abigail Spanberger's victory this week continues that same historical trend after President Trump's return to office.
The pendulum swings both ways in Virginia
Political winds shift fast in Virginia's off-year elections that serve as the first major test after each presidential race.
Republicans controlled the Executive Mansion from 2010 through 2013 before Democrats took over for eight years.⁹
Youngkin broke that streak in 2021 and now Democrats are back in control four years later.
But history shows this won't last forever – especially with the right candidates and message.
The difference between winning and losing in Virginia comes down to which party mobilizes its base better and captures swing voters in crucial suburban counties.
Youngkin succeeded by keeping Trump at arm's length while running on issues suburban parents cared about deeply.¹⁰
He outperformed Trump's 2020 numbers in every single county and city across Virginia by focusing on education, parental rights, and economic concerns.¹¹
Spanberger won by hammering Trump's Department of Government Efficiency and federal layoffs affecting Virginia's massive population of federal workers.¹²
She stuck to kitchen table issues about affordability and costs while Earle-Sears focused heavily on transgender policies in schools.
The political environment matters enormously in these bellwether races.
Youngkin rode a wave of parental fury about school closures and critical race theory when those issues dominated the news.¹³
Those same culture war topics fell flat in 2025 when voters worried more about their paychecks and economic security.
The Jay Jones scandal speaks volumes
While the Republican establishment largely focused foreign entanglements over the last year, Democrats focused on pocketbook issues here at home.
As a consequence of that strategic mistake, Jay Jones was still elected as attorney general despite text messages showing he fantasized about shooting Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert and hoped Gilbert's children would "die in their mother's arms."¹⁴
Jones wrote that Gilbert and his wife were "breeding little fascists" and that public policy only changes when lawmakers feel the pain parents experience losing children to gun violence.¹⁵
President Trump called Jones a "Radical Left Lunatic" who made "SICK and DEMENTED jokes" about murdering a legislator and his family.¹⁶
The scandal dominated headlines for the final month of the campaign after the Charlie Kirk assassination made political violence the defining issue of 2025.
Republican Jason Miyares hammered Jones relentlessly during their debate and in campaign ads.¹⁷
Jones still won 52% to 47% – but that five-point margin is the narrowest of the three statewide races.¹⁸
Spanberger won by 11 points and Ghazala Hashmi captured the lieutenant governor race by seven points.¹⁹
Jones underperformed the rest of the Democrat ticket significantly despite running in the most favorable environment possible for his party.
That at least shows Virginia voters aren't mindlessly pulling the lever for Democrats no matter what.
Republicans can't surrender Virginia to the left
Virginia is worth fighting for and conservatives must fight for it.
The commonwealth isn't New York or California where Republicans have no realistic path to statewide victory.
Virginia still has deep conservative roots in rural counties and remains genuinely competitive in the suburbs where elections get decided.
Youngkin proved Republicans can win with 50.6% of the vote in a state Biden carried by double digits just one year earlier.²⁰
His administration governed successfully with strong approval ratings despite facing a divided legislature.
The infrastructure exists for Republican victories – it just requires the right candidates running on issues voters actually care about at that moment.
Running on culture war topics worked brilliantly in 2021 when suburban parents were furious about pandemic school policies.
Those same issues bombed in 2025 when economic anxiety dominated voter concerns.
Republicans also need to confront uncomfortable truths about candidate quality.
The GOP nominated John Reid for lieutenant governor despite inflammatory social media posts that forced Governor Youngkin to publicly call for him to drop out during the primary.²¹
Reid later staged an odd "debate" against an AI-generated version of his opponent after she refused to share the stage with him.²²
The fight for Virginia's future starts now
Last Tuesday felt like a disaster for conservatives who watched Democrats sweep every statewide race.
Seeing a man who fantasized about murdering children become attorney general made the loss even more painful.
But Virginia isn't lost – not by a long shot.
The pendulum swings in Virginia politics and it will swing back toward Republicans when they run better candidates with smarter messages.
Democrats will have to defend their record running Virginia instead of just attacking Trump.
And Republicans will hopefully have learned hard lessons about what works and what doesn't in a state that refuses to become a reliable stronghold for either party.
Virginia is the problem child of the South right now – but she usually finds her way back home.
Conservatives just need to keep fighting for her instead of surrendering to the left.
The commonwealth is worth saving and it can be saved with the right approach.
Don't give up on Virginia – because Virginia hasn't given up on conservatism yet.
¹ Shannon Heckt, "Four years after the red wave, Virginia Democrats seem poised to make their own statement," Virginia Scope, November 1, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Nathaniel Cline, "Youngkin wins major upset as GOP roars back in Virginia," Virginia Mercury, November 3, 2021.
⁴ Ibid.
⁵ Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry J. Gomez, "Republican Youngkin wins Virginia governor's race in blow to Democrats," NBC News, November 3, 2021.
⁶ Nathaniel Cline, "Youngkin wins major upset as GOP roars back in Virginia," Virginia Mercury, November 3, 2021.
⁷ Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry J. Gomez, "Republican Youngkin wins Virginia governor's race in blow to Democrats," NBC News, November 3, 2021.
⁸ Ibid.
⁹ Nathaniel Cline, "Youngkin wins major upset as GOP roars back in Virginia," Virginia Mercury, November 3, 2021.
¹⁰ Geoffrey Skelley, "How Republicans Swept A Bluish State," FiveThirtyEight, November 3, 2021.
¹¹ Ibid.
¹² Scott Neuman, "Democrat Spanberger wins Virginia governor race with message on DOGE, cost of living," NPR, November 4, 2025.
¹³ Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry J. Gomez, "Republican Youngkin wins Virginia governor's race in blow to Democrats," NBC News, November 3, 2021.
¹⁴ Alex Seitz-Wald and Bridget Bowman, "Jay Jones will become Virginia's next attorney general, overcoming disclosure of violent text messages," CNN, November 5, 2025.
¹⁵ Hayley Fowler, "What did Jay Jones say? Read text messages in full," Newsweek, October 6, 2025.
¹⁶ Ibid.
¹⁷ Manu Raju and Alex Seitz-Wald, "Jay Jones' violent text messages take center stage in Virginia AG race debate against Jason Miyares," CNN, October 16, 2025.
¹⁸ "Virginia 2025 election results," The Washington Post, November 5, 2025.
¹⁹ Nathaniel Cline and Charlotte Rene Woods, "Democrats sweep Virginia's statewide races, reclaiming full control of executive branch," Virginia Mercury, November 4, 2025.
²⁰ Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry J. Gomez, "Republican Youngkin wins Virginia governor's race in blow to Democrats," NBC News, November 3, 2021.
²¹ Nathaniel Cline and Charlotte Rene Woods, "Democrats sweep Virginia's statewide races, reclaiming full control of executive branch," Virginia Mercury, November 4, 2025.
²² Ibid.
