If Donald Trump wins his way back to the White House this November, he has a big job ahead of him for the next four years.
And he’ll need all the help he can get from Republicans in Congress and governor’s mansions throughout the country.
But the former President just received a flashing red warning signal about one ally who could be in big trouble.
Nebraska is red, but is it going purple?
Nestled right in the middle of the country lies a largely rural state that supplies food to tables all over the United States.
Nebraska is one of the reddest states in America.
In 2020 Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in the Cornhusker State by 19-points.
In fact, Trump won 91 out of 93 counties, with virtually all of those by at least a 3-to-1 margin.
Even the two urban areas of Nebraska, though voting for Biden, did so by a much slimmer margin than metropolitan areas in most of the country.
The state’s Governor, Jim Pillen, is a Republican.
Instead of the typical set up in most states, Nebraska has a unicameral, non-partisan legislature, but conservatives comprise most of its electorate.
Nebraska has three Congressman, and all three are members of the Grand Old Party.
And both of the state’s two U.S. Senators, Pete Ricketts and Deb Fischer are also Republicans.
However, a new poll shows Senator Fischer’s re-election campaign could potentially be in some trouble.
Is Deb Fischer safe in 2024
Back in 2012, Fischer won her way into the Upper Chamber by a 15.5-point margin.
She followed that up winning re-election in 2018 by 19-points.
In 2024, Fischer doesn’t even have an Democratc opponent – instead going head-to-head against independent Dan Osborn (no relation to legendary Cornhusker football coach and former GOP Congressman Tom Osbourne).
With all that in mind, one would think Nebraska should be safe for Fischer and Republicans.
Afterall, The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Real Clear Politics, all rate Nebraska as safe or solid red.
But the polling service YouGov seems to think otherwise.
Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osborn
The YouGov survey found that Fischer only holds a 2-point lead, 43-41 with 16% of respondents saying they are undecided.
The poll also suggests that when voters learn more about the two candidates, the undecideds drop in half, Fischer drops all the way down to 39% support, while Osborn shoots up to 53%.
The YouGov numbers get even more interesting when you look at the “information” that was supplied to respondents.
The Osborn description is all about his “independence” and military service, while the Fischer description focuses on her support for Trump.
So, despite voters in the state strongly favoring Trump, somehow, those descriptions apparently turn Nebraska voters off to Fischer and on to Osborn.
YouGov’s summary of their findings really tries to push the idea that Nebraska is now a new battleground state.
“New data from statewide polling among registered voters in Nebraska indicates a tight race for US Senate between Senator Deb Fischer and Independent Dan Osborn,” the summary reads. “Senator Deb Fischer has weak support among Nebraska voters, and over two-thirds of voters of all partisan leanings are open to supporting an Independent candidate for US Senate. The race between Fischer and Osborn starts tied within the margin of error but swings strongly in favor of Osborn after voters receive neutral profile information for both candidates.”
While YouGov may want this to be true, traditional election metrics don’t seem to bear it out.
Additionally, Fischer has raised more than $6 million but is not spending wildly on the campaign in an effort to regain any supposed lost momentum.