Democrats fled Texas in buses to stop it.
Gavin Newsom blew up California's independent redistricting commission to fight back.
Now a Republican election expert just told Washington exactly what it all added up to – and the left is not going to like the number.
How Republicans Won the 2026 Redistricting War Eight States to Two
Eight states redrew their congressional maps this cycle favoring Republicans. Two – California and Utah – went to Democrats. That's the final score of the most aggressive mid-decade redistricting war since the 1800s, and it wasn't close.
Republican consultant Jim Ellis, speaking Thursday at a Washington event on how redistricting will shape the 2026 elections, put the net GOP seat gain at somewhere between five and twelve.
Texas anchored the whole effort.
After the Biden Department of Justice's own court case – Petteway v. Galveston County – exposed that existing maps violated federal law, Greg Abbott moved fast. Democrats physically fled the state to block a vote. They failed. The new map passed both chambers, Abbott signed it, and the Supreme Court cleared it for use in December 2025. Ellis projects it flips three to five Democratic seats.
Then came the dominos.
Missouri flipped one safe Democratic seat red. North Carolina took a district Trump won by three points in 2024 and redrew it so he would have won it by twelve. Ohio redrew Marcy Kaptur's longtime seat from a district Trump carried by under seven points to one he won by nearly eleven. Ron DeSantis signed Florida's new map in May targeting four Democratic seats.
Then the Supreme Court handed Republicans a gift nobody saw coming.
How the Supreme Court Gutted the Voting Rights Act and Handed Republicans More House Seats
On April 29, Justice Samuel Alito wrote the 6-3 majority in Louisiana v. Callais, ruling that Louisiana's second majority-Black district was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.
Roberts, Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett joined him.
The ruling ended the legal mandate forcing Southern states to draw majority-minority districts regardless of partisan effect – a mechanism Democrats had used for decades to guarantee safe seats for their coalition.
Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee immediately began redrawing maps. Each produced a new Republican-favoring seat.
Three more GOP pickups, handed to them by the Court.
Democrats attempted a countermove in Virginia – voters narrowly passed a gerrymander that could have netted them up to four seats. Virginia's supreme court struck it down 17 days later.
Indiana and South Carolina could have added more red seats. A handful of Republican state legislators voted with Democrats to block both maps. Ellis noted those states will almost certainly redistrict again before 2028.
Republicans Could Still Lose the House Despite the Gerrymandering Win
Here is where Ellis got honest.
Even with a net gain of five to twelve seats from redistricting, Republicans can still lose the House in November.
The RealClearPolling generic ballot average from May through early June shows Democrats ahead by six points. At the same point in the 2018 cycle, Democrats held an identical lead – and went on to pick up 40 House seats. The Iran war is polling as one of the least popular military conflicts in modern American history. Gas is over six dollars a gallon in Los Angeles.
Ellis specifically flagged two Texas seats the GOP is targeting – the 28th and 34th Districts in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley – as genuine toss-ups rather than locks.
Florida is the wild card. DeSantis drew an aggressive map, but none of its four new GOP targets rate as "Solid R" from Cook Political despite all of them having voted for Trump by at least nine points in 2024. One is a toss-up. Two lean Republican. One is merely likely Republican.
Ellis pushed back on the doom framing. Florida has shifted dramatically since 2018 – from 257,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans to 1.5 million more registered Republicans. "That's the difference. And that's what the pollsters miss. And that's why the polling has been wrong in Florida in almost every election since 2018," he said.
Why the 2026 Redistricting War Is Just the Beginning
Ellis predicted another redistricting round before the 2028 elections, driven by the Callais ruling and Democratic retaliation from blue states. New York, he said, is a guarantee.
Beyond 2028, the math gets worse for the left.
Population projections show red states growing while blue states bleed residents. Under 2025 estimates, California loses four congressional seats after the 2030 census. Texas gains four. Florida gains two. New York, Illinois, Oregon, Minnesota, and Rhode Island each lose one.
The Electoral College moves with the population. Texas gains seats, California bleeds them, and the map tilts further right before a single vote is cast.
Democrats spent this cycle trying to fight the last battle. They blew up California's independent redistricting process, attempted a Virginia gerrymander that got killed in court, and fled Austin in buses in a stunt that backfired nationally. Republicans methodically ran eight states, won a Supreme Court ruling that reshaped the legal landscape for decades, and locked in a map advantage that compounds every election cycle through 2032 and beyond.
The left ran the buses. Republicans ran the board. And the census data guarantees the next round goes the same way.
Sources:
- Anthony Iafrate, "Who Really Won The Midterms' Gerrymandering War?," The Daily Caller, June 6, 2026.
- "Louisiana v. Callais (24-109)," SCOTUSblog, April 29, 2026.
- "24-109 Louisiana v. Callais," Supreme Court of the United States, April 29, 2026.
- "Generic Congressional Ballot Average," Silver Bulletin, June 2026.
- "2026 Midterm Elections Generic Ballot Tracker," Morning Consult, June 2026.
- "2030 Apportionment Forecast," American Redistricting Project, 2025.
